How much does mileage really matter?
Values · 5 min read
Everyone "knows" mileage kills value. What's rarely said is how much, and for which cars: because the answer varies by a factor of three across the enthusiast market, and misreading it costs real money in both directions.
The sensitivity spectrum
In our model every car carries a mileage sensitivity: the value impact per 10,000 km (≈6,200 mi) away from what's expected for its age. The spread across the index is dramatic:
- Hot hatches & roadsters — ~1.2–1.7% per 10k km. A MX-5 or Golf R is expected to be used. An extra 20,000 km moves the price by little more than a service bill.
- Sports cars — ~1.5–2.0%. A Boxster S wears mileage well; buyers care more about the maintenance file than the odometer.
- Supercars & collector cars — ~2.6–3.4%. A 458 or 720S is bought partly as an object. Every 10,000 km visibly dents the number, because the next buyer is buying scarcity, not transport.
Same odometer, opposite meanings: 60,000 km is nothing on a Golf R and a discount event on a Ferrari.
The 150,000 km plateau
Mileage expectations aren't linear forever. A 20-year-old car "should" have 240,000 km by average-use math, but surviving enthusiast cars don't, because they become weekend cars. Our model caps expected mileage at 150,000 km (≈93,000 mi): beyond a car's mid-life, the market compares everything against that plateau, not against age × annual average. Practically: on a 2004 E46 M3, the difference between 150,000 and 190,000 km matters far less than the difference between 60,000 and 100,000 km did. Old + moderate mileage is normal, not damaged.
When high mileage is the smart buy
- You plan to drive it. Buying a low-km car and adding 15,000 km/yr burns the premium you paid. Buy the honest 120k-km car, drive guilt-free, sell into the same segment of the market you bought from.
- The service file is fat. A high-mileage car with every invoice beats a low-mileage car with none. Mileage wears metal; neglect kills it. The file is the truth.
- The model has known must-do jobs. If the clutch, bearings or major service was just done, the previous owner paid for your first trouble-free years. High-mileage cars are where that arbitrage lives.
When low mileage is worth paying for
Collector-trajectory cars — anything on a U-turn curve, limited runs, "last of" models. There, the low-km example is the asset; the market pays for preservation, and the gap between a 20,000 km and an 80,000 km 458 only widens with time. Paying up for kilometres you'll never add is rational only when the next buyer will pay you back for them.
Use it: the deal checker on every car page adjusts for mileage automatically — enter the real odometer and see the fair range move. If a seller's premium for low mileage is bigger than the checker's, they're charging you for folklore.